{"id":2813,"date":"2019-04-01T16:32:55","date_gmt":"2019-04-01T13:32:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/akademiye.org\/tr\/?p=2813"},"modified":"2019-04-01T16:34:42","modified_gmt":"2019-04-01T13:34:42","slug":"birak-iliskiyi-gelistirmeyi-kosar-adim-kac-cin-ekonomisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/akademiye.org\/tr\/?p=2813","title":{"rendered":"B\u0131rak \u0130li\u015fkiyi Geli\u015ftirmeyi, Ko\u015far Ad\u0131m Ka\u00e7: ‘\u00c7in Ekonomisi’"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Do\u00e7. Dr. \u00d6mer Kul<\/p>\n

\u00dclkemizin, i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f tehditleri her zamankinden daha hissetti\u011fi son y\u0131llarda, bilhassa, Suriye i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131, Rusya, ABD ve AB ile ya\u015fanan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131larda, ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00c7in’in deste\u011fini almak y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kamuoyu alg\u0131s\u0131 maalesef ciddi manada taraftar bulmu\u015f idi.
\nHatta bu tarafgirlik, Do\u011fu T\u00fcrkistan meselesinin bilin\u00e7li olarak, bilhassa ABD taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fcndeme getirilerek, geli\u015fmekte olan T\u00fcrkiye-\u00c7in ili\u015fkilerinin, bu mesele y\u00fcz\u00fcnden akim kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve bu oyuna d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmemesi gerekti\u011fine dair de ciddi bir kamuoyu olu\u015fturulmu\u015ftu. Pe\u015finen s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse, bu alg\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131nda \u00c7in devletinin destekledi\u011fi, gazete yazarlar\u0131, radyo programlar\u0131, akademik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, \u00c7in ile s\u0131k\u0131 f\u0131k\u0131 olanlar\u0131n propagandalar\u0131 da etkili olmu\u015ftu. G\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc olarak \u00c7in propagandas\u0131 yapanlar\u0131 da bu kategoriye eklemek gerekir. \u0130\u015fin ac\u0131 taraf\u0131, olay\u0131 sadece maddi \u00e7\u0131kar \u00fczerinden de\u011ferlendirenlerin, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana Do\u011fu T\u00fcrkistan’da ya\u015fanan insan hak ve \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fckleri ihlalleri ile, dini ve \u0131rk\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lamalara dair tek kelam etmemeleri olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

Peki durum ger\u00e7ekten anlat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi miydi?<\/p>\n

Do\u011fu T\u00fcrkistan’da ya\u015fananlara dair bu k\u00f6\u015fede birka\u00e7 yaz\u0131 kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zdan, ya\u015fanan insanl\u0131k dramlar\u0131n\u0131 tekrar etmeyece\u011fiz. Bug\u00fcn ki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda, \u00c7in’in denildi\u011fi gibi ekonomik olarak ger\u00e7ekten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00fclke olup-olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, hatta s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fcnler ge\u00e7irdi\u011fimiz bu d\u00f6nemde \u00c7in’in T\u00fcrkiye’ye bir faydas\u0131n\u0131n dokunup-dokunamayaca\u011f\u0131na dair olacakt\u0131r. Hatta bu minvalde verilerini ortaya koydu\u011fumuzda, \u00c7in ile b\u0131rak\u0131n ili\u015fkileri geli\u015ftirmeyi, az-bu\u00e7uk ekonomiden anlayanlar\u0131n ifadesiyle, ondan “ko\u015far ad\u0131m ka\u00e7mak m\u0131” gerekti\u011fini de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

\"\"Asl\u0131nda ger\u00e7ek olan\u0131n, \u00c7in \u00fczerine ciddi ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131d\u0131r. \u015e\u00f6yle ki, \u00c7in ekonomisi kamuoyunun genel olarak alg\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n aksine ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar ve potansiyel patlama noktalar\u0131 olan problemli bir ekonomidir. Bu durumu, \u00c7in\u2019in yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerin do\u011fru kabul ederek, temel makro g\u00f6stergelerden kolayca anlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

De\u011ferli dostum, ayn\u0131 zamanda finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde iyi bir uzman olan Abdullah O\u011fuz beyden \u00c7in ekonomisi ile ilgili bir rapor haz\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 rica etti\u011fimde, a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 ben de b\u00f6yle bir tablo ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131 beklemiyordum. Raporun \u00f6zeti enteresan bilgiler sunmakta. \u015e\u00f6yle ki, \u00c7in’de uzun y\u0131llar s\u00fcren y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymakta idi. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda % 14,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00c7in ekonomisi, takip eden y\u0131llarda s\u00fcrekli g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetmi\u015f ve 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise bu rakam % 6.6 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Bu rakam\u0131n son 28 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fc oldu\u011funu belirtmek gerekir. Yani \u00c7in’in ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi % 50’den fazla azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bununla birlikte 2014-2018 d\u00f6neminde \u00c7in’in ekonomik avantajlar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda gelen cari fazlan\u0131n, gayrisafi milli has\u0131laya oran\u0131 % 9.9’dan % 1.1’e d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana \u00c7in’e gelen do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda ise % 40 azalma olmu\u015f, yine ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u00c7in’in d\u00f6viz rezervleri 900 Milyar Dolar azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu temel g\u00f6stergeler \u00c7in ekonomisinin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ve cazibesini kaybetti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"\u00c7in a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan i\u015fin en dikkat \u00e7ekici yan\u0131 ise bu borcun ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesidir. 2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda borcun ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011fe oran\u0131 % 141 iken, bu rakam 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda % 266’ya y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. \u0130\u015fin \u00f6z\u00fc \u00c7in ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir balon ve bu balon patlad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00e7ok y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 etkileri olaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bu y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 etkinin sadece \u00c7in ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek de abart\u0131 olmasa gerekir.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f ticaret T\u00fcrkiye’nin ba\u015f\u0131na bela olan bir durumdur. Bunu 2007-2017 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan d\u0131\u015f ticaret rakamlar\u0131ndan kolayca anlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Zikredilen d\u00f6nemde \u00c7in ile T\u00fcrkiye aras\u0131ndaki d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacmi 250 Milyar Dolar’d\u0131 250 Milyar Dolarl\u0131k yekunda ithalat\u0131m\u0131z 225 Milyar Dolar, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z ise sadece ama sadece 25 Milyar Dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

\"\"Bu 200 Milyar Dolarl\u0131k fark, \u00dclke ekonomimizin en s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 noktas\u0131 olan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n, zikredilen 2007-2018 d\u00f6nemindeki tutar\u0131n\u0131n % 46’s\u0131na tekab\u00fcl etmektedir. Bu fark\u0131n yorumunu okuyucular\u0131m\u0131za b\u0131rak\u0131yorum. Zikredilen bilgilerden a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere \u00c7in ile ekonomik ili\u015fkiler faydadan \u00e7ok y\u00fck getirme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fimizde, bizim i\u00e7in, \u00c7in ile ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan de\u011fil i\u015fbirli\u011fi yapmak, ko\u015far ad\u0131m ka\u00e7mam\u0131z gereklidir. \u00c7in’e neleri ihra\u00e7 edip, neleri ithal etti\u011fimizin listesine bakmak, bu kanaate varmaya yeter de artar bile\u2026<\/p>\n

NOT: \u00c7in ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki ticaret sava\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik geli\u015fmelerin 2019\u2019un ilk aylar\u0131nda da k\u00fcresel piyasa g\u00fcndemindeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu ifade etmek gerekir. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in ekonomisi son 28 y\u0131l\u0131n en zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini kaydetmi\u015f durumdad\u0131r. \u00c7in ekonomisindeki ivme kayb\u0131 2018\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde de devam ederek y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme % 6,4 ile 2009’dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. \u00c7in’de sanayi \u00fcretimi \u015eubat ay\u0131nda % 5,3 ile son 17 y\u0131l\u0131n en yava\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydederken, ihracat\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda % 20,8 oran\u0131nda geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. \u00c7in\u2019de yerel h\u00fckumetlerin bor\u00e7 seviyelerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 ve GSYH\u2019nin % 300\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilen toplam bor\u00e7 stokunun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar son d\u00f6nemde h\u0131z kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Moody\u2019s\u2019in tahminlerine g\u00f6re varl\u0131k y\u00f6netim \u015firketleri taraf\u0131ndan “g\u00f6lge bankac\u0131l\u0131k” kanal\u0131yla ekonomiye sa\u011flanan fonlar bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 530 milyar Dolar azalarak 2018\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi itibariyle 8,8 trilyon Dolar (GSYH\u2019nin %70\u2019i) seviyesine geriledi. \u00d6te yandan y\u0131l\u0131n ilk iki ay\u0131nda konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla % 3,6 azald\u0131. Temmuz ay\u0131ndan bu yana gerileyen otomobil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u015eubat\u2019ta ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla % 13,8 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Otomobil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki gerilemede ekonomideki yava\u015flaman\u0131n etkili oldu\u011fu s\u00f6yleniyor.<\/p>\n

2018 y\u0131l\u0131 A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan bu yana kaydedilen ve Kas\u0131m\u2019da 27,1 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyine kadar y\u00fckselen sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, Ocak ay\u0131nda 10,8 milyar dolar seviyesine kadar geriledi. \u00c7in’de do\u011fum oran\u0131 70 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Resmi kay\u0131tlara g\u00f6re, \u00c7in\u2019de do\u011fum oran\u0131 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda son 70 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyine indi. \u00c7in, 1979’dan beri uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aile ba\u015f\u0131na tek \u00e7ocuk politikas\u0131n\u0131 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda esneterek, kentlerde ya\u015fayan \u00e7iftlerin iki \u00e7ocuk sahibi olmas\u0131na izin vermi\u015fti. Ancak, veriler n\u00fcfus kontrollerini gev\u015fetme politikas\u0131n\u0131n etkili olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00dclkede do\u011fum oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken, ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusun h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi endi\u015fe yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Og\u00fcn Haber<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Do\u00e7. Dr. \u00d6mer Kul \u00dclkemizin, i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f tehditleri her zamankinden daha hissetti\u011fi son y\u0131llarda, bilhassa, Suriye i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131, Rusya, ABD ve AB ile ya\u015fanan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131larda, ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00c7in’in deste\u011fini almak y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kamuoyu alg\u0131s\u0131 maalesef ciddi manada taraftar bulmu\u015f idi. Hatta bu tarafgirlik, Do\u011fu T\u00fcrkistan meselesinin bilin\u00e7li olarak, bilhassa ABD taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fcndeme getirilerek, geli\u015fmekte olan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-turkiye-ve-cin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/akademiye.org\/tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/akademiye.org\/tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/akademiye.org\/tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akademiye.org\/tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akademiye.org\/tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2813"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/akademiye.org\/tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2830,"href":"https:\/\/akademiye.org\/tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2813\/revisions\/2830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/akademiye.org\/tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akademiye.org\/tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akademiye.org\/tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}